Coastal areas have traditionally been an attractive place for people to live, but if these areas are low-lying, they are also prone to flooding. In the Netherlands, half of the population lives in coastal areas below mean sea level. Dunes are the primary sea defense along most of the Dutch coastline, and the envisaged protection level of this densely populated and economically valuable area is one of the highest in the world. Since extreme design storm events have not been observed in recent history, the design, evaluation and maintenance of flood defense systems relies on models and data extrapolation.
This book is about the reduction of uncertainty in dune erosion prediction, and the improvement of dune safety assessment, particularly for complex dune coasts. With reference to the Dutch experience, it describes the use of state-of-the-art, process-based models for studying the influence of cross-shore bathymetry, wave obliquity and coastline curvature on dune erosion. A reduction in the uncertainty of dune erosion prediction is envisaged by deploying a more comprehensive modeling approach and a tailored probabilistic approach. In addition, the use of a Bayesian Network model overcomes the limitations of the probabilistic methods, and allows model, field and laboratory data to be combined with expert opinion to estimate dune erosion rate.
The book stresses the importance of wave obliquity and coastal curvature for the assessment of dune safety against flooding and will be of interest to all those involved in flood prevention in coastal areas.